Triathlon Adaptive Strategy
Markets fall faster than they rise.
This strategy seeks to do the opposite.
When markets climb, they tend to do it slowly and steadily. When they fall, the drops are sharper and deeper. Most portfolios carry the same exposure through both. The Triathlon Adaptive Strategy is a rules-based strategy built to respond when the market's trend changes, rather than hold a fixed position through every condition.
| Annualized Return | 1 Year | 3 Year | 5 Year | 10 Year | Since 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triathlon Adaptive | 47.3% | 34.9% | 23.0% | 28.3% | 20.3% |
| SPY | 29.7% | 23.2% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 8.6% |
Annualized returns through May 31, 2026. Triathlon Adaptive is net of a 1.25% advisory fee; SPY is shown with dividends fully reinvested.
Recognize the trend
Triggers read the market and shift the allocation when the trend turns. Systematic, not discretionary.
Match the allocation
More exposure in uptrends, less in downturns, seeking higher long-term risk-adjusted returns than a passive index.
The Triathlon Adaptive Strategy is measured here against three common approaches: the S&P 500 (SPY), the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), and a traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and Treasury bonds. The comparison covers annualized returns over multiple periods and, just as important, the worst decline each has suffered.
| Strategy | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 10 Yr | Since 1999 | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triathlon Adaptive | 47.3% | 34.9% | 23.0% | 28.3% | 20.4% | -29.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 29.7% | 23.2% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 8.6% | -55.2% |
| Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | 42.7% | 29.0% | 18.0% | 21.8% | 11.1% | -83.0% |
| 60/40 portfolio | 19.2% | 15.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.3% | -30.2% |
Annualized total returns through May 31, 2026, dividends reinvested. Triathlon Adaptive is net of a 1.25% advisory fee; the comparisons are gross. The 60/40 portfolio is 60% SPY and 40% a 7–10 year U.S. Treasury position, rebalanced annually. Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline since March 1999.
Resilience
In the market's worst declines
The strength of the strategy shows most in severe declines. Protecting capital in a downturn leaves more invested for the recovery, and the same triggers that reduced exposure move back toward growth as the trend turns up.
Dot-com collapse
Financial crisis
COVID crash
Hypothetical, backtested. Growth of $100 rebased to the start of the period. Model net of a 1.25% advisory fee; SPY total return.
Hypothetical, backtested. Growth of $100 rebased to the start of the period. Model net of a 1.25% advisory fee; SPY total return.
Hypothetical, backtested. Growth of $100 rebased to the start of the period. Model net of a 1.25% advisory fee; SPY total return.
Important Disclosures
The performance shown is hypothetical and backtested over the period March 1999 through May 2026 (approximately 27.2 years). It does not represent trading in any actual client account and has inherent limitations. Backtested results are constructed with the benefit of hindsight and do not reflect the impact of material economic and market conditions on decision-making in a live account. The Triathlon Adaptive Strategy is proprietary and rules-based; because its rules and parameters were developed and refined using historical data, the results benefit from hindsight and may reflect, whether deliberate or not, choices that improved historical results. The Triathlon Adaptive Strategy uses leveraged exchange-traded funds in certain conditions, which magnify both gains and losses. Triathlon Adaptive figures are net of a 1.25% annual advisory fee; SPY, QQQ, and the 60/40 portfolio are shown gross and are presented for comparison only. SPY is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, QQQ is the Invesco QQQ Trust, and the 60/40 portfolio is 60% SPY and 40% a 7–10 year U.S. Treasury position, rebalanced annually. All figures are total return with dividends reinvested and assume a tax-deferred account with no taxes; transaction costs, commissions, and slippage are not reflected. A decline of 29.6% is itself a substantial loss. No representation is made that any account will achieve results similar to those shown. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. This material is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Triathlon Partners LLC is a registered investment adviser; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.